Over the last 9 months, we have been lucky enough to attend two presentations by Distinguished Professor Emeritus Paul Spoonley about the changing demographics in New Zealand.
The information is so fascinating, that twice was not even enough, we could listen to him again and again, and the Q&A’s at the end of his talks were even more interesting. We strongly recommend that you attend a presentation of his if you ever get the opportunity.
We have provided a download link of his presentation for you below this article and he has a book that you can read – ‘The New New Zealand’, but in this article, we have summarised some of the key points for your reference.
The population make-up of New Zealand is changing – quickly and the changes mean that what we know of as ‘New Zealand’ will change.
1. We are getting older – By 2030 the largest and fastest growing group of New Zealanders will be the 85+ year olds. We know that by 2050, the town that we live in will have 30% of the population aged over 65.
2. We aren’t having enough children to replace ourselves. The replacement ratio is 2.1 children per woman, and we are sitting at 1.6 [In the 1950’s there were 4.3]. This is common in developed countries around the world and raises many questions about how we are going to support our older people in the future (particularly with New Zealand Super and healthcare costs.)
3. We are moving to urban locations – with most people living in the top of the North Island (basically from Taupo north). Auckland will make up 40% of New Zealand’s population by 2038.
4. Regional populations are stagnant and in decline. This has direct implications for any population based funding (eg medical facilities, transport).
5. We are becoming more diverse led by our immigration flows.
6. Maori led economic and cultural development is a major trend that will change how New Zealand looks.
7. We gained 118,200 net new people by immigration in 2023. Most of these were from India, Philippines, China, Fiji and South Africa.
8. By 2030 – 25% of all New Zealanders will be Asian – and they don’t trust institutions (eg NZ Banks) and 1/3 of all our workers will be Asian.
What does this mean for our lives?
We are living much longer. If you are a Pakeha male aged 65 now, on average you will live to be 88.4 years old. In 1956, you would only have lived to be 79.
But for someone born this year - on average they will live to be 94 (which means that a large cohort will live to be 100+).
Our money may not last as long as we do. This article in Stuff talks about how retirees are now working into their 80’s and 90’s as they don’t have enough saved and can’t live off the level of New Zealand Superannuation. This is exacerbated with the rising cost of living. https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350218070/retirees-work-80s-90s-insufficient-super-and-snowballing-living-costs
25% of people aged 65+ are still in paid employment. But us baby boomers (I’m at the tail end, being born in 1964) are big spenders. Future generations aren’t likely to have as much money to spend.
Working with our clients to plan their retirement savings – how much they need to save and how to use their money in retirement, is the core of the work that we do with our clients.
There will be less young people. Which means less schools (by 2030 – which is very close) there will be 30,000 fewer school students. Schools will close and new schools won’t be built.
And they will have far less money. They will have student debt, they won’t be able to afford to get into their own property. They will quite likely choose not to have children.
There will be beanpole families a multi-generational family that is long and thin with few aunts, uncles and grandparents.
Auckland will have far more people and far more diversity. At present 43% of Aucklanders are overseas born and 23% identified as members of Asian communities.
In the 2030’s – Asians will be 7% of the 65+ population, with Pakeha at 75%.
Sports engagement is already changing. Education is the priority with the immigrant population. Favoured sports for young people are swimming, golf, road cycling, football, tennis. Rugby is nowhere near the top of the list.
We will have workforce shortages (eg in the health sector)
With the improved medical knowledge (and despite our workforce shortages), we are living longer. Our money has to last longer, we need to stay fitter. The multi-cultural aspects of our society will continually change, and require understanding and tolerance of differences. The demographic changes have deep implications, including simple things like - who are the workers going to be on our farms?
